Jackson said the final two days are unlikely to shift the national environment, though local developments remain possible.
With two days remaining before the United States midterm elections, Democratic and Republican leaders are making their final appeals to voters, and the cost-of-living crisis has become a central theme of the closing argument. According to Al Jazeera, the squeeze on household budgets, exacerbated by the US-Israel war on Iran, is among the key issues shaping the campaign's last stretch.
The national picture favours the Democrats. The latest RealClearPolling average puts them ahead of the Republicans by 51.5 per cent to 43.1 per cent, according to the report. A THP/MM survey conducted on 28 and 29 October showed a 54 to 41 per cent Democratic lead, while an Emerson College poll from 24 to 26 October indicated a ten-point advantage. Natalie Jackson, a political analyst and pollster quoted by Al Jazeera, attributed this to public dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump and the economy, saying Americans feel the pinch of high costs, partly due to tariffs and the war in Iran, and that the general sentiment is that Republicans did not deliver over the past two years.
Individual Senate contests are less certain. In Kansas, a Washington Post-Schar School poll released on Friday suggested Democrat Adam Hamilton leading Republican Senator Roger Marshall by 52 to 43 per cent, while a separate Emerson College survey showed a tighter 50 to 47 per cent race. Doug Heye, a Republican strategist and former communications director for the Republican National Committee, questioned the nine-point lead, recalling a Des Moines Register poll before the 2024 presidential election that showed Kamala Harris ahead in Iowa by three points; Trump won the state by about 13. Heye added that many Republicans simply do not want to answer calls from pollsters. Jackson likewise warned that polling error could shift close Senate races, noting reported difficulties in reaching Republican respondents, which might mean polls are underestimating Republicans.
Both parties have centred their closing messages on the economy. Democrats have emphasised affordability, while Trump has held telephone rallies for Republican candidates in contested races. Heye said Republicans had struggled to convince voters their economic policies would improve matters, and that candidates should address the cost of energy, healthcare and groceries directly. Celinda Lake, a Democratic strategist and pollster working with Abdul El-Sayed's campaign in Michigan, said feelings about the Democrats are negative too, unlike 2018, and that voters remain unsure what either party would deliver.
Trump is scheduled to hold rallies in Iowa and Kansas on Sunday, having initially cancelled both appearances before reversing the decision on Friday. El-Sayed, who the report says has faced an increased wave of Islamophobic attacks, will campaign in Detroit and Southfield, Michigan, against Republican Mike Rogers. More than 51 million Americans have already voted, though early-voting figures do not reveal how those ballots were cast. Lake said turnout would be decisive, alongside young voters and the gender gap. A total of 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are up for grabs; Democrats need a net gain of three House seats and four Senate seats to win majorities in both chambers. Jackson said the final two days are unlikely to shift the national environment, though local developments remain possible.
