That scale of turnover is the detail that matters most.
Much of the attention ahead of Tuesday's midterm elections has fallen on the battle for control of the United States Congress, but voters in 36 states will also choose their next governor, the most powerful elected official in state government. According to Al Jazeera, an unusually high proportion of those races centre on open seats: in 19 contests the current officeholder is either term-limited, like California Democrat Gavin Newsom, or has opted not to run again, like Iowa Republican Kim Reynolds. That scale of turnover is the detail that matters most.
Governors are the chief executives of their states, overseeing the departments and agencies that deliver public services. Their powers vary by state, but in general they propose budgets, appoint senior officials, direct agencies on how to enforce existing law and issue executive orders. One of the most visible areas of influence is reproductive rights. Since the Supreme Court ruled in 2022 that there is no constitutional right to abortion access, state governments have determined whether the procedure is legal, and some 13 state legislatures have passed complete or near-total bans. The Guttmacher Institute, a US-based reproductive rights organisation, noted that about a dozen governors have issued executive orders to mitigate the harm of such bans, citing North Carolina, where the governor supports abortion rights but the legislature does not.
Governors also shape how elections are administered. In some states they appoint the officials responsible for overseeing elections; in others those officials are elected independently. Governors may sign or veto legislation changing voting rules, giving them significant influence over the machinery of future contests. They likewise mediate the relationship with Washington, challenging federal policies in court or negotiating over funding and programme requirements. Al Jazeera cites the aftermath of the Affordable Care Act in 2010, when governors decided whether their states adopted the law's Medicaid expansion. Steve Beshear of Kentucky and Earl Ray Tomblin of West Virginia issued executive orders in 2013 to adopt expansion without legislative approval, while Florida's then-governor Rick Scott, now a US senator, opposed it and directed the legislature not to adopt it.
The governor's mansion has long been a launchpad. At least 17 former presidents, including Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and George W Bush, governed a state before occupying the White House. The Eagleton Institute of Politics estimates that only 53 percent of presidential nominees who were previously governors ultimately won their races, a reminder that state records can weigh as heavily as they lift. Chris Christie dropped out of the 2016 Republican primary in February of that year amid criticism of his governorship, his administration still reeling from the Bridgegate scandal, and some Republicans denounced his greeting of Barack Obama during Hurricane Sandy in October 2012.
This year's races are expected to set the stage for 2028. Newsom, governor since 2019 and barred from a third term, is widely speculated to be a frontrunner for the Democratic nomination, having established himself as a vocal critic of Republican President Donald Trump. Other potential Democratic contenders are locked in re-election campaigns that could serve as previews, among them Wes Moore of Maryland and Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania. What the report does not establish is how many seats will change party, which races are closest, or how the new governors will govern once in office. Those questions will be settled at the ballot box, and in the budgets and orders that follow.
