On the evidence of this first day, the diplomatic track has reopened without yet acquiring traction.
Russia, Ukraine and the United States opened trilateral peace talks in the United Arab Emirates on Tuesday, the first such meeting in roughly nine months, according to Foreign Policy. The first day of the two-day conference focused largely on security guarantees for Kyiv, which the U.S. negotiator Jared Kushner described as an initial step towards building momentum for future dialogue.
The atmospherics were cordial. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who did not attend, called the conversations "constructive and quite substantive" in a post on Telegram, while lead Russian negotiator Vladimir Medinsky expressed hope that the dialogue would "allow us to advance on the path towards peace". Yet the report is clear that neither side appears willing to make concessions, and that significant breakthroughs remain out of reach.
Two sticking points dominate. Ukraine and its European allies insist on an immediate ceasefire before any wider settlement is negotiated; Russia rejects such a truce, with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov arguing that Brussels is merely trying to "buy time" for Kyiv. Ukraine also refuses to cede territory, whereas Moscow wants Kyiv to withdraw from the four Russian-occupied regions of the Donbas. Zelensky warned that Putin would not stop if Ukraine left the Donbas, but would pause and return within years.
The battlefield has done little to sharpen the incentives for compromise. According to the report, battle lines have not changed substantially in recent months, and just hours before the talks began Russia launched overnight attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, causing outages in six regions. Moscow has repeatedly targeted the power grid in an effort to freeze Ukraine into submission ahead of another cold winter.
Outside pressures may yet force the pace. The report notes that prolonged fighting has strained Russia's wartime economy, that Ukraine's arsenal is dangerously low on U.S.-made interceptors, and that European capitals are increasingly focused on Black Sea security. On Tuesday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen pledged $56 million to help Bulgaria and Romania launch a Black Sea maritime security hub after deadly drone attacks on cargo ships.
Even so, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking at the G-7 foreign ministers' meeting in Paris, cautioned that there is "a lot of work to be done" and that a deal is not on the verge of being solved within 24 hours. What the talks may produce in concrete terms, and whether the security-guarantee discussion advances beyond first principles, is not yet known. On the evidence of this first day, the diplomatic track has reopened without yet acquiring traction.
