Against that baseline, a move to roughly $1,105 is a retreat from the peak rather than a reversal of the underlying tightness.
European exchange gas prices fell to nearly $1,100 per 1,000 cubic metres on 2 November, the lowest level since 29 October, according to TASS calculations based on data from the London-based ICE exchange. The December futures contract at the Dutch TTF hub dropped to approximately $1,105 per 1,000 cubic metres, or 95.21 euros per MWh, with the decline at one point exceeding 3%. Day-ahead spot prices at the same hub also settled around $1,105, or roughly 95.255 euros per MWh.
The reported trigger was diplomatic rather than physical. According to TASS, the move came against the backdrop of news regarding peace talks between Iran and the United States. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, Mojtaba Khamenei, had authorised the government to engage in negotiations with Washington aimed at a peaceful resolution to the conflict. The report does not specify the state of those talks, whether they have begun, or what terms are under discussion.
Context matters for reading the size of the fall. TASS reports that the average gas price in Europe for October was 2.6 times higher than in the same month last year, reaching $1,000 per 1,000 cubic metres, the highest level since the end of 2022. At their peak in October, TTF spot prices exceeded $1,200 per 1,000 cubic metres for the first time since December 2022, and breached the 100-euro-per-MWh threshold for the first time in four years. The reported drivers were record-low gas storage levels ahead of winter and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
Against that baseline, a move to roughly $1,105 is a retreat from the peak rather than a reversal of the underlying tightness. The October surge reflected inventories as much as geopolitics, and a single session of diplomatic optimism does not refill storage. Officials quoted in the TASS report have set out a wide range of possibilities: Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller noted prices above $1,200 and predicted that, in the event of a cold winter, European prices could reach as high as $2,500 per 1,000 cubic metres, while Russian President Vladimir Putin did not rule out a climb to $1,500.
Those figures are forecasts, not outcomes, and should be treated as such. What the report establishes is narrower: a market that had priced in considerable Middle East risk marked down sharply on the prospect of negotiations. What it does not establish is whether the talks will produce anything durable, how quickly any easing of the conflict would affect physical flows, or how European storage will hold up if temperatures fall. The direction of prices through the winter is likely to depend less on the headline of any single diplomatic contact than on whether supply risk actually recedes and inventories recover.
The immediate signal is that traders are willing to price peace talks into the curve. The unanswered question is whether the winter gives them reason to reverse that judgement.
