If we want rural communities to have a future, the people producing our food have to be able to make a living doing it.
The upcoming US midterms have brought attention to the struggles of farmers across the country, who are making difficult decisions on what to plant and how to vote. According to the Al Jazeera report, farmers like Paul McKinney in northeast Arkansas are shifting from rice to soya due to higher fuel and fertiliser costs, which have skyrocketed since the start of the war on Iran.
The economic strain on farmers is evident, with farm bankruptcies for the first three quarters of 2026 up 19 percent compared to the same period last year, and 73 percent compared to 2024. The University of Arkansas' National Agricultural Law Center analysis highlights the severity of the situation. Ryan Loy, an extension economist, notes that the trade war with China, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and disruptions related to the 2025 tariffs have driven up input costs and disrupted markets.
Democrat Hallie Shoffner, a sixth-generation Arkansas farmer, has quit farming to challenge Republican Senator Tom Cotton, focusing her campaign on rising costs and their impact on farmers. Shoffner's decision to close her family's farm was driven by the uncertainty of trade wars and tariffs, which made the numbers stop working for their 2,000-acre farm operation. She hopes to end the war on Iran, build trade policies farmers can plan around, and pass a robust Farm Bill to help farmers and rural economies.
However, it remains to be seen whether economic pain will change farmers' votes, as many are committed Republicans. Michael Shepherd, a political scientist at the University of Michigan, notes that committed voters tend to view the economy through a partisan lens, making their voting choices less responsive to changes in the agricultural economy. Despite this, some polling suggests that farmers may be swayable, with 35 percent of farmers who usually vote Republican and 15 percent who always vote Republican still considering how they would vote.
The outcome of the elections may not be significantly influenced by farmers' votes, as they represent a shrinking percentage of rural voters. Nevertheless, campaigns like Shoffner's might signal to funders that similar races may be competitive in the future or help Democrats win down-ballot seats. The US President's announcement of an $8bn fuel relief programme for farmers may provide some relief, but farmers like McKinney hope for longer-term solutions to prevent the constant battle for survival.
