A programme designed to reward reform and deepen commercial ties is being used to register disapproval of a beneficiary's domestic conduct and foreign policy.
The United States will suspend South Africa and Rwanda from duty-free trade benefits under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) from January 1, 2027, according to Al Jazeera. The US Trade Representative, Jamieson Greer, said on Monday that both governments had failed to meet the programme's eligibility criteria. Neither country had responded at the time of the report.
The scale of the decision is clearest in South Africa's case. It has been AGOA's largest beneficiary, exporting about $1.7bn worth of goods to the US under the programme in 2025. Its AGOA exports are mainly motor vehicles and parts, farm products and wine, while its broader trade with the US includes precious stones and metals, vehicles, iron and steel. Greer said President Trump had found that both governments were engaging in practices inconsistent with AGOA's eligibility criteria, which cover progress towards market-based economies, good governance and the removal of barriers to US trade and investment. Eligibility is reviewed annually.
The stated grounds differ between the two. For Rwanda, Washington cited trade barriers, the rule of law and human rights, and the country was also suspended in 2018. For South Africa, it pointed to barriers to US trade and investment, corruption, and threats to US national security and foreign policy interests. The report notes that the Trump administration has pressed South Africa over what the president says is the persecution of white people, a claim Pretoria rejects as a falsehood spread by fringe groups. Washington has also objected to South Africa's foreign policy, in particular the genocide case it brought against Israel at the International Court of Justice; Israel denies the allegations.
Pretoria signalled that it expected the outcome. The Department of Trade, Industry and Competition said last week it was prepared for a negative eligibility finding and remained open to dialogue with Washington. It estimated that AGOA exports account for only about 10 per cent of South Africa's total exports to the US and 1 per cent of its total global exports. President Cyril Ramaphosa had said in recent weeks that the country must prepare to be cut out of the programme and was already seeking new markets and signing trade deals with partners including China.
That arithmetic limits the immediate economic shock for South Africa, but the political signal is harder to discount. A programme designed to reward reform and deepen commercial ties is being used to register disapproval of a beneficiary's domestic conduct and foreign policy, and the criteria invoked are broad enough to accommodate both. Rwanda's main exports to the US are coffee, tea and minerals, and a second suspension suggests Washington is willing to return to the same instrument. What is not yet known is whether either country will seek to contest the finding, what consultation preceded it, and whether the suspension is intended as permanent or as leverage for negotiations before the January 2027 start date.
