That makes a headline figure of 165,000 look stronger than it would have a few years ago.
Employment in the United States grew by 165,000 jobs in October, according to government data reported by SCMP World, far exceeding the 65,000 new jobs analysts had expected in a consensus forecast from Briefing.com. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.1 per cent, against expectations that it would hold at 4.2 per cent. The Bureau of Labour Statistics also revised up its figures for August and September by a combined 84,000 jobs, with September's gain now put at 60,000 rather than the 29,000 previously reported.
The report matters chiefly for what it implies about monetary policy. The Federal Reserve holds a dual mandate to keep inflation at a long-term 2 per cent target while ensuring maximum employment, and the article notes that a relatively stable labour market has allowed the central bank to make fighting stubbornly high prices its priority. Strong October data could add to pressure for further rate hikes, which would put the Fed at odds with President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly called for lower borrowing costs and responded to September's rate rise by demanding that the central bank lower rates "FOR THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND FAST!"
The detail is mixed. Professional and business services led the gains with 70,000 jobs, far above the sector's average monthly gain of 15,000 over the past year. Healthcare added 42,000, above its 31,000 average, and the article notes the sector has propped up the labour market as an ageing population requires more care. Transport and warehousing added 25,000, mostly couriers and messengers, and manufacturing 19,000. Construction, retail, financial activities and government were largely unchanged. Average hourly earnings were up 3.1 per cent over the past 12 months, with wages continuing to lag behind inflation, meaning most workers are seeing real wage losses.
The wider picture is one of a job market that has been solid but unspectacular. Employers have added an average of 86,000 jobs a month so far this year, modest by historic standards but an improvement on 2025, when monthly creation averaged 9,700, the weakest performance outside a recession since 2002. Hiring remains well below the 166,000 monthly average of 2023 and 2024, let alone the 491,000 a month recorded during the post-lockdown boom. Economists describe a "low-fire, low-hire" environment in which employers are reluctant to shed existing workers but in no hurry to hire, leaving young entrants and the recently unemployed struggling to find work.
One structural point deserves attention. The United States does not need as many new jobs as it once did to keep unemployment from rising, because baby boomer retirements and Trump's immigration crackdown mean fewer people are competing for work. In late 2023 the so-called break-even point was around 166,000 new jobs a month; it is now just over 5,000, according to an estimate by Yale University's Budget Lab drawing on an earlier Federal Reserve report. That makes a headline figure of 165,000 look stronger than it would have a few years ago.
The data arrived days after midterm elections in which the cost of living weighed heavily on voters, a political context the report notes without elaborating. What is not yet known is whether the Fed will read this single report as grounds for another hike, and whether the gains will spread beyond professional services and healthcare. Ger Doyle, North America regional president at ManpowerGroup, said demand is clearly picking up in parts of the economy but that it must spread into more industries before this can be called a broader hiring recovery.
