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Spheres of Influence: Trump's Russia Deal Alarms NATO Allies

A proposed settlement extending beyond Ukraine has revived fears of a Yalta-style division of Europe, with Kyiv and allied commanders voicing concern.

Spheres of Influence: Trump's Russia Deal Alarms NATO Allies

Reporting drawn from Fox News World. Analysis and editorial framing by the Faultline Journal Editorial Desk.

"We have always said nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine," he said, noting that neither the EU nor NATO had been heard in the conversation.

President Donald Trump's push for a deal with Russia to end the war in Ukraine, and potentially to reshape European security more broadly, has raised alarm among NATO allies, according to Fox News. A former top alliance commander told Fox News Digital that President Vladimir Putin has long sought to divide the world into competing spheres of influence. The warning came as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy appeared to reject what he called a potential "Yalta 2.0", and as NATO allies debated direct outreach to Putin ahead of delegations preparing for talks in Abu Dhabi on 10-11 November.

Retired Gen. Philip Breedlove, the former Supreme Allied Commander Europe, said Putin's ambitions extend far beyond Ukraine. "Putin has a plan for the world, and he has pushed that plan on leaders several times," Breedlove said, adding that the Russian president "talks about it and he writes about it". He described that plan as three spheres of influence in which China controls the Far East, Russia controls Europe and America controls the Western Hemisphere. Trump himself suggested on Thursday that an agreement with Moscow could extend beyond ending Russia's nearly five-year war in Ukraine. "It's going to be a big agreement, and it's going to involve more than Ukraine... I could even say it might involve all of Europe," he told reporters after meeting Russian presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev at the White House.

Zelenskyy warned on Friday against repeating the 1945 Yalta Conference, where Allied leaders negotiated Europe's postwar order before the Soviet Union consolidated control over Eastern Europe. "We don't want to have Yalta 2.0," he told CNN. "We don't want to be divided by Russia." Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters on Sunday that discussions on how Europe would look after the Ukraine war were already under way, saying the question had been raised repeatedly in every conversation and that Trump was alluding to advances made on what that architecture could look like post-conflict. "We obviously have to get past the conflict to get to that point," he added.

Breedlove questioned whether European governments and Ukraine would accept a broader agreement negotiated without their involvement. "We have always said nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine," he said, noting that neither the EU nor NATO had been heard in the conversation. Tensions appeared to mount after Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre held a rare 90-minute telephone conversation with Putin on 27 October, according to reports. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen criticised separate European diplomatic initiatives, saying Europe should stick together rather than going solo, while Breedlove defended the outreach as entirely appropriate. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot confirmed on Sunday that France would take part in the Abu Dhabi discussions, according to Reuters.

Breedlove warned that any agreement requiring European nations to sacrifice their security to satisfy Moscow would face fierce resistance. "If the maximalist demands of Russia remain intact and in order to find peace, all the rest of Europe has to give up its security, sacrifice its security, make itself more susceptible to Russian attack, then this is not going to go well," he said. He added that EU nations, NATO nations and Ukraine would not sign up to a plan allowing Russia to amass its armies and intervene in its neighbours' internal business. "We need to understand that we are in a war. Mr. Putin is at war with the West," he warned.

Much remains unconfirmed. The substance of any Trump-Putin understanding has not been made public, and the composition and mandate of the Abu Dhabi delegations are unclear. Whether European allies or Kyiv would be asked to endorse terms they have not negotiated is an open question, and the reported Northern European calls with Putin have not been detailed beyond their duration. What the reporting does establish is that the question of Europe's post-war security architecture has moved from speculation into active diplomacy, and that the allies most affected are watching it with unease.

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