The result has made Palestinian citizens of Israel central to the country's governing arithmetic for the first time in years.
Israel's election has produced no clear winner, but it has produced an unmistakable shift. According to NPR, neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition nor the centre-right opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot reached the 61 seats needed to form a government. Arab-led parties took 19 of the Knesset's 120 seats, enough to give them a decisive role in the negotiations that will determine who governs.
The scale of the Arab vote is the story behind the arithmetic. The Central Elections Committee recorded a 64 per cent increase in votes for Arab-led parties compared with the previous election, NPR reports. Jamal Zahalka, chairman of the High Follow-Up Committee, the main umbrella body representing Palestinian citizens of Israel, described the outcome as a historical achievement. "We blocked the government of Netanyahu from continuing," he said. Palestinian citizens make up roughly 20 per cent of Israel's population.
Residents of Kufr Qasim interviewed by NPR pointed to worsening conditions inside Israel since the Hamas-led attacks of 7 October 2023, in which some 1,200 people were killed, as a reason for turning out. Intisar Sarsur, 65, said everyone she knew had voted. The article also cites Israel's war in Gaza, where it says more than 74,000 Palestinians have been killed, and settler violence in the occupied West Bank. The turnout was framed by many as a demand for basic rights rather than an embrace of the political system.
The gains have been contested. Netanyahu posted a video on election day calling the Arab turnout an "emergency", and the far-right national security minister, Itamar Ben Gvir, filmed an appeal at the entrance to Kufr Qasim urging voters to keep the country Jewish and Zionist. Likud later claimed Arab parties had "stolen" the election through bribery, threats and forgery, and warned of a foreign takeover of the Knesset. NPR reports that the party has made no evidence public, that police found no basis for the claims and that election officials said there was no widespread fraud. The head of the elections committee asked the Shin Bet to investigate suspected foreign funding of efforts to boost Arab turnout, while he and the attorney general said the vote was conducted properly.
The messaging is widely seen as an attempt to deter Eisenkot from partnering with Arab parties. That path is difficult in both directions. Eisenkot is a former military chief of staff whose son was killed fighting in Gaza, and he is credited with formulating the "Dahiyeh doctrine" of disproportionate force. The Joint List, which holds 11 of the 19 Arab-led seats, has said it could support his government from outside but will not join it, citing the war in Gaza and the occupation of the West Bank. Ra'am, a socially conservative Islamist party, campaigned on joining a coalition and placed a Jewish former police official second on its list.
President Isaac Herzog is consulting parties on whom they would support. What is not yet known is whether any coalition can be assembled, whether Eisenkot would accept outside support from Arab parties, and whether his bloc would hold together if he did. The result has made Palestinian citizens of Israel central to the country's governing arithmetic for the first time in years. Whether that leverage converts into influence is the question the negotiations will answer.
