The arithmetic is less decisive than it appears.
Israel's president, Isaac Herzog, is due to name a candidate to attempt the formation of a government on Sunday, after an inconclusive election on 27 October left neither Benjamin Netanyahu nor his main rival, the former army chief Gadi Eisenkot, with a parliamentary majority. According to Al Jazeera, the consultations between party leaders and the president ended on Thursday with 67 of the 120 Knesset members endorsing Eisenkot and 46 endorsing Netanyahu.
The arithmetic is less decisive than it appears. Eisenkot's lead depends on the support of parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel, which won a record 19 seats in October, and which he has ruled out bringing into government. Netanyahu's endorsements fell seven short of his bloc's 53 seats after United Torah Judaism, a longtime ally, withheld its endorsement in a dispute over the exemption of ultra-Orthodox Israelis from military service. Herzog has not publicly committed to either side, noting that "mutual vetoes between the blocs and within the blocs themselves" make it difficult to judge who could assemble a coalition.
No bloc has the 61 seats needed for a majority. Netanyahu's right-wing and religious alliance holds 53, four Jewish-led parties backing Eisenkot hold 48, and the Arab-led parties hold 19, split between the Joint List with 11 and the United Arab List, or Ra'am, with eight. Eisenkot could reach exactly 61 by winning over United Torah Judaism and Shas, though Shas endorsed Netanyahu on Wednesday and United Torah Judaism has signalled that its support is available for the right price. Ra'am has said it is willing to join an Eisenkot-led government; the Joint List has ruled out joining but offered outside support. Both endorsed him during the consultations, but he has refused to bring either into government unless they meet conditions including recognition of Hamas as a terrorist organisation. Ra'am's leader, Mansour Abbas, has expressed support for disarming Hamas but declined to apply the label.
Israeli law offers another route. Eisenkot could become prime minister with fewer than 61 seats if his proposed government wins a parliamentary confidence vote, which the two Arab-led parties could help him secure. He might then form a minority government and later seek a majority by making concessions to the ultra-Orthodox parties on conscription. The alternative of a unity government with Netanyahu and Eisenkot rotating as prime minister, excluding the Arab-led parties, remains an option, though many of Netanyahu's rivals have ruled out serving under him.
The dispute has exposed the position of Palestinian citizens in Israeli politics. Some of Eisenkot's allies have opposed relying on Palestinian lawmakers, while Netanyahu's Likud has warned that cooperation with the Arab-led parties would be dangerous to Israel. Ahmad Tibi, a senior Joint List member, told the Associated Press that rejecting a partnership would prove Israel is "an ethnocracy, not an absolute democracy for all citizens". The Joint List said its backing was intended to answer a public demand to stop Netanyahu returning to power, and that it hoped to narrow the path to a unity government that keeps him in office. In return for outside support, the Arab-led parties are seeking guarantees for Palestinian citizens, including an end to house demolitions and incitement, action against crime, and a political horizon for Palestinians.
The timetable is unforgiving. The nominee will have 28 days to form a coalition, extendable by 14. A second nominee would then receive 28 days, and a third, backed by a parliamentary majority, a final 14. If all fail, the Knesset is dissolved and a new election called within 90 days, with Netanyahu remaining as caretaker prime minister. Nehru Jamhour, an analyst of Israeli affairs, told Al Jazeera that this drawn-out impasse was the likeliest outcome and Netanyahu's preferred one, with the prime minister hoping a repeat election would weaken his rivals and depress turnout among Palestinian citizens. What remains unconfirmed is how Herzog will weigh endorsements he may regard as conditional, and whether either bloc can convert its numbers into a workable coalition.
