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Gulf States Hedge as US-Iran Channels Stay Open

The UAE says it hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough with Iran while preparing for the worst, as Washington keeps both negotiation and force on the table.

Gulf States Hedge as US-Iran Channels Stay Open

Reporting drawn from SCMP World. Analysis and editorial framing by the Faultline Journal Editorial Desk.

Gargash's formulation, hope for a breakthrough and readiness for the worst, captures the position of several Gulf capitals rather than Abu Dhabi alone.

The United Arab Emirates is hoping for a diplomatic breakthrough between Iran and the United States while preparing for the worst, a senior official said on Sunday, according to a report by the South China Morning Post. Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the UAE president, told a conference in Manama, Bahrain, that another round of regional war would not serve the interests of the region. He added that the Emirates had shown before that it was braced for the worst.

The remarks came after a Qatari delegation visited Tehran this week, following which Iran dispatched envoys to the Gulf state to continue consultations as part of indirect negotiations with Washington aimed at ending the war. The conflict began on 28 February with joint US and Israeli strikes on Iran, which retaliated by targeting, among others, Gulf countries allied with Washington. That retaliation explains the Gulf's caution: states that host or align with American forces have found themselves exposed to Iranian reprisal.

Washington's messaging remains deliberately double-edged. US President Donald Trump reiterated his threats on Saturday, saying the United States still had to "take care of" one or two targets in Iran. At the same conference, Assistant Secretary for Near Eastern Affairs Donald Blome said the hand of negotiation had been extended and that the channels remained open and active, while adding that the United States had also been prepared to go in another direction. Blome framed the stakes in economic terms, saying Washington could not allow Iran to take the region and the global economy hostage.

On Saturday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Trump had not made a decision about fresh strikes on Iran and that the United States would be open to a diplomatic solution. The gap between the president's threats and the secretary of state's caution is itself a signal. It keeps pressure on Tehran during indirect talks while leaving room for a settlement, and it gives Gulf partners a reason to keep their own channels to Iran open.

For the UAE, the calculation is straightforward. Its economy and infrastructure depend on avoiding a wider war, and its ties to Washington make it a potential target if diplomacy fails. Gargash's formulation, hope for a breakthrough and readiness for the worst, captures the position of several Gulf capitals rather than Abu Dhabi alone.

What is not yet known is the substance of the indirect talks, the terms under discussion, or whether the Qatari and Iranian consultations have produced any concrete progress. The report gives no timetable for further rounds and no detail on what the remaining US targets might be. Officials quoted in the report describe open channels and continued preparation; they do not describe a deal.

IranUnited StatesUAEGulf diplomacyMiddle East