The Gulf states' public posture of preparing for the worst while negotiating for the best reflects how little either side is prepared to guarantee.
Indirect talks between Washington and Tehran ran into a third day in Doha on Sunday, with Qatar attempting to negotiate the release of more than $6bn in Iranian assets, according to The Guardian. The release could lead to the reopening of the strait of Hormuz and the restart of negotiations on Iran's nuclear programme. Officials from the Gulf states are said to be braced for the worst as they await Washington's response to an Iranian proposal, which the report suggests could reopen the strait before the US midterm elections on Tuesday.
The Emirati envoy Anwar Gargash said another round of escalation was not in the interests of Iran or any of its neighbours, but added: "We are also, as we have shown before, braced for the worst." He described relations with Iran as essential, saying Tehran is a neighbour and that the UAE does not want to see it caught up in a prolonged crisis. The remarks capture the position of Gulf capitals that sit close to the waterway and would absorb the first shocks of any closure or confrontation.
Qatar's mediation has continued despite unidentified missiles striking a Pakistan-bound Qatari LNG tanker near the strait on Friday. According to the report, the attack came despite the ship receiving direct clearance and safe-passage approval from Tehran just hours earlier. That sequence is central to the distrust hanging over the talks: an assurance from Tehran was followed by a strike that no party has publicly claimed. The report does not identify who fired the missiles, and no confirmation of responsibility has been given.
To bridge the lack of trust on both sides, Qatar has focused on compressing the sequence by which the US lifts sanctions and Iran then reopens the strait and begins nuclear talks. Iran has agreed to cut the timetable from seven days to two, according to the report. The mechanism is designed to reduce the window in which either side could stall or reverse course, though it also concentrates risk into a very short period.
What remains unconfirmed is substantial. The report gives no detail of Washington's position, no account of the substance of the Iranian proposal beyond the assets and timetable, and no indication of whether the nuclear talks would resume on existing terms. The identity of the missile attackers is unknown, and the link between the tanker strike and the negotiations is not established. Whether the strait reopens before Tuesday's vote is likewise unresolved.
The stakes are structural rather than merely diplomatic. Hormuz carries a large share of the world's seaborne oil and gas, and a sustained closure would raise costs for importers far beyond the Gulf. For now, the talks in Doha offer a narrow channel through which de-escalation might run. The Gulf states' public posture of preparing for the worst while negotiating for the best reflects how little either side is prepared to guarantee.
