Okun's verdict is blunt: the new Congress will not affect trade policy, and neither tariffs nor the war will change.
Across the Asia-Pacific, governments and businesses are watching Tuesday's US midterm elections with unusual attention. According to Al Jazeera, the region has been hit harder than any outside the Middle East by the US and Israel's war on Iran, and many in it want to see "enormous changes" during the rest of President Donald Trump's term. Few expect them, even with the Democrats poised to take the House of Representatives and potentially the Senate.
The energy shock explains much of the anxiety. Before the conflict began in January, the region took in most of the Gulf oil and gas passing through the Strait of Hormuz. When Iran closed the chokepoint in response to US and Israeli strikes, shortages followed. The Philippines, which draws more than 90 percent of its crude imports from the Gulf, has been under a national energy emergency since March. The ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore reports that soaring fuel costs have drained foreign exchange reserves in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and East Timor, while Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam have spent heavily on subsidies to shield consumers.
Trade specialist Steven Okun, chief executive of the Singapore-based consultancy APAC Advisors, told Al Jazeera that a Democratic-controlled Congress is unlikely to force an end to the eight-month conflict. He expects investigation and oversight hearings, and possibly an impeachment of the secretary of defence, but no change to the war's overall impact. The constitutional mechanics bear him out: Trump has claimed the strikes were self-defence and has ignored congressional resolutions directing a withdrawal, and any restrictive legislation could be vetoed. Overriding a veto requires two-thirds majorities in both chambers, which the Democrats are almost certain to fall short of.
On tariffs, the picture is similar. Trump imposed "reciprocal" tariffs of 10 to 50 percent on some 90 countries last year, with Asia hit hardest: Cambodia at 49 percent, Laos at 48, Vietnam at 46 and Myanmar at 45. After the Supreme Court struck those down in February, the administration turned to other instruments, imposing tariffs of 10 and 12.5 percent on goods from 60 trading partners in July over alleged failure to stop imports made with forced labour, a list that includes China, Japan, South Korea and seven Southeast Asian nations. Okun's verdict is blunt: the new Congress will not affect trade policy, and neither tariffs nor the war will change.
Others see a narrow opening. Stephen Olson of ISEAS argued in a recent essay that a strong rebuke of "Trumpism" at the polls could embolden a pro-free-trade Republican wing "intimidated into standing down" during Trump's presidency, offering what he called "a glimmer of hope" for Southeast Asian exporters. A Democratic Congress might push for carve-outs and exceptions, though any deeper shift would wait for 2028. Joshua Kurlantzick of the Council on Foreign Relations told Al Jazeera the region's wish list extends to security: more stable trade policy, steadier US security guarantees, and a clearer American presence in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait.
The one area where analysts expect movement is Chinese technology. Okun said the next Congress will pass tougher restrictions regardless of the result, including the Remote Access Security Act, the Chip Security Act and the MATCH Act, because both parties agree on them. He added that the least restrictive figure on China is now the president himself, who has met Xi Jinping twice this year and has held off approving a $14bn arms package for Taiwan. Some analysts worry a lame-duck Trump, hemmed in at home, could turn more forcefully to foreign policy. What that would mean in practice is not yet known.
